Risk Analysis Model Building

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Risk Analysis Model Building

Meyer, A., Zamir L., Gilboa, B.Y., Gelman, B., Pfeiffer, D.U., & Vergne, T. (2017). Quantitative assessment of the risk of release of foot-and-mouth disease virus via export of bull semen from Israel. Risk Analysis, 37(12), 2350- 2359.

The objective of this analysis was to assess the risk of release of Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus through bull semen in artificial insemination. The objective is clearly stated and it is meaningful because it estimates the risk of purchasing bull semen in Israel. This model will be used by countries, individual farmers, and researchers interested in bull semen from Israel. The stochastic risk assessment model used in this study is well explained and demonstrated starting with model formulation before application in the study.

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Description

Risk Analysis Model Building
Objectives
1)      To be able to critically analyse probabilistic risk assessment reports and research
findings in the farm to fork context;
2)      To demonstrate that the same principles of quantitative risk assessment covered
throughout this unit are extendable to various applications even beyond the food safety area.
In this assignment you are provided with three research papers dealing with the
application of probabilistic modelling for quantitative risk assessment of different
problems applied to microbial food safety, importation of biological animal products
and environmental exposure assessment.
For each of the three papers, provide a critical analysis covering of the following
points:
1.- What was the objective of the analysis; is it clearly stated? Is it meaningful?
2.- Who will use this model? And for what purpose in your opinion?
3.- Is the conceptual model building is explained and demonstrated well?
4.- Do you think some significant assumptions were made? And do you think
the authors justified such assumptions well?
5.- What is your critical opinion on the probability distributions used as inputs to
each model? Provide one or two examples of what you think as good choices, and
also provide one or two examples on what do you think as a “worth improving” (and
suggest how this could be improved).
6.- Was the data sources clear and do you think appropriate sources were
identified; Provide one or two examples of what you think as good choices, and also
provide one or two examples on what do you think as a “worth improving” (and
suggest how this could be improved). Risk Analysis Model Building.
7.- What do you think about the Statistical and Graphical descriptions of model
outputs? What is good? What is need improvement?
8.- Overall, do you think you could reproduce this model in a scenario relevant
to your work or research area in the future?

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